Sex offenders: 70% drop in recidivism since 1940

Québec City, December 20, 2022 – The recidivism rate of sex offenders has dropped by nearly 70% in Canada over the past 80 years according to a study published recently in the academic journal Criminology and Public Policy. According to Dr. Patrick Lussier, lead author of the study and professor in the Faculty of Social Sciences at Université Laval, improved knowledge about sexual offending and the training of professionals working in the criminal justice system would explain these results.

To arrive at this conclusion, Dr. Lussier and his team reviewed 185 studies that analyzed the recidivism rate of 226 groups of sex offenders across the country between 1940 and 2019, for a total sample size of 55,944 offenders. 

The results showed that between 1940 and 1979, the weighted average sexual recidivism rate was 23%, while today it is around 7%, a decrease of nearly 70%. 

“I don’t think we can attribute the drop observed in Canada since the 1970s and 1980s to any one law or policy. I think it’s a combination of factors,” says Dr. Lussier. The researcher notes that this dramatic decline began more than 20 years before the Canadian sex offender registry was implemented in 2004. “This non-public registry, designed primarily to make police investigations easier, is not the reason for this drop; we have to look elsewhere.”

Among the hypotheses put forward to explain the decline, Dr. Lussier mentions improved knowledge to help us understand sexual offending, particularly the factors associated with sexual recidivism. “When we have a better understanding of the contexts that drive an individual to reoffend, we may be in a better position to prevent recidivism and, of course, adjust treatment programs,” suggests Dr. Lussier. 

The researcher adds that there is now greater collaboration between correctional facilities and the academic community and that practice has evolved, with criminal justice workers now being trained. “Criminology didn’t even exist in Canada until the 1960s,” he says, referring to his field of study, which looks at the causes and the process of criminal behaviour. 

Probation and parole officers at that time were often former school teachers, ex-military, or retired police officers, the professor explains. Today, expertise is available from criminologists, psychologists, psychiatrists, sexologists, and social workers, all of whom can be found in detention facilities, penitentiaries, halfway houses, and probation services. 

“There is a real expertise that has developed to meet the needs of this clientele and to help us work together to prevent sexual recidivism,” the researcher concludes.

The study published in Criminology and Public Policy is co-authored by Julien Fréchette and Stéphanie Chouinard Thivierge from Université Laval’s School of Social Work and Criminology, Jean Proulx from Université de Montréal and the International Centre for Comparative Criminology, and Evan McCuish from Simon Fraser University’s School of Criminology.